India has served a formal notice to Pakistan on 30 August 2024 seeking its review and modification of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a move that indicates its growing frustration with the working of the agreement, especially Islamabad’s intransigent approach towards handling disputes related to cross-border rivers. Article XII (3) of the Treaty allows for its provisions to be modified by a duly ratified agreement between the two governments.
This follows a “notification for modification” of the treaty that was conveyed by the Indian side on January 25, 2023, people familiar with the matter said. With this notice, India has called on Pakistan to begin government-to-government negotiations to review the treaty under the provisions of Article XII (3), the people added. The concerns that have driven India to seek changes reflect altered circumstances. The people said there are three specific concerns that India has expressed to drive home the point that the 1960 understanding is no longer tenable: the new population demographics; the need to accelerate the development of clean energy to meet India’s emissiontargets; the impact of persistent cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir which has impeded the smooth implementation of the agreement and undermined the full utilization of India’s rights.
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan, and it was brokered by the World Bank, which too is a signatory. It is considered the most durable treaty between the two countries but has come under considerable pressure in recent years as bilateral ties plunged to an all-time low due to tensions related to terrorism and Jammu and Kashmir. The move to seek changes also comes amid a prolonged controversy regarding the 330-MW Kishanganga and 850-MW Ratle hydropower projects. The World Bank has simultaneously activated both the “neutral expert” mechanism and the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the same set of issues.
The Indian side has also sought the reconsideration of the dispute resolution mechanism under the Indus Waters Treaty, the people said. In 2015, Pakistan sought the appointment of a neutral expert to handle its objections to the two hydropower projects, but it unilaterally retracted this in 2016 and sought a court of arbitration. In 2016, the World Bank appointed both a neutral expert and the chair of the court of arbitration. Though the World Bank put a “pause” on both processes the same year, this was lifted in March 2022 at Pakistan’s insistence and both processes resumed.
India has been attending meetings convened by the neutral expert but has stayed away from the proceedings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The Indian side said earlier that two simultaneous processes on the same dispute can result in inconsistent and contradictory rulings, create a legally untenable situation, and even put a question mark on the working and integrity of the Indus Waters Treaty. The treaty has not been amended since it was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960, by then Pakistan president Mohammad Ayub Khan, then Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and WAB Illif of the World Bank.
The World Bank will have no role in the proposed negotiations, which will be open ended and cover all aspects of the treaty. At the time of independence in 1947, the India-Pakistan boundary was drawn across the Indus Basin, leaving Pakistan as the lower riparian state. A dispute arose because some key irrigation works, including one at Madhopur on the Ravi river and another at Ferozepur on the Sutlej river, on which irrigation canals in Pakistan’s Punjab province were completely dependent, were in Indian territory.
The Indus Waters Treaty allocated the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, Chenab – to Pakistan, and the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – to India. It allowed each country certain uses on the rivers allocated to the other. The World Bank’s role is largely procedural and limited to designating neutral experts or the chair of the court of arbitration.
